Thaum Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav los txog, cov kws tshaj lij kev lag luam txawv teb chaws yuav nkag mus rau lub qhov rais tseem ceeb txhua xyoo - lubXyoo 2026 Q1 pib zoo heevKev rov pib ua haujlwm tom qab hnub so, kev rov ua dua cov khoom muag txawv teb chaws, kev tshaj tawm cov khoom tshiab hauv e-commerce hla ciam teb, thiab kev sib sau ua ke ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom hauv cov lag luam tshiab, ua ke nrog kev hloov kho txoj kev xa khoom thoob ntiaj teb, kev thov nce ntxiv rau AI thiab lub zog tshiab, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov qauv hauv kev xa khoom thiab cov nqi thauj khoom -xaiv cov pawg khoom zoo, teem sijhawm koj cov kev txav mus los kom raug, thiab nrhiav chaw thauj khoom ua ntej yuav teeb tsa lub suab rau kev ua tau zoo ntawm lub xyoo..
I. Xyoo 2026 Q1 Kev Lag Luam Txawv Teb Chaws: Kev Nce Qib Ruaj Khov nrog Kev Txhim Kho Cov Qauv
•Kev Loj Hlob Tag Nrho: Goldman Sachs kwv yees tias Tuam Tshoj txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom tawm (USD-denominated) yuav ncav cuag 5.6% hauv xyoo 2026, nrog rau qhov ntim khoom xa tawm tseem loj hlob ntau dua 5%, qhia txog kev ua siab ntev tseem ceeb.
•Kev tsom mus rau cov qauv: Kev tsim khoom siv, kev lag luam thev naus laus zis siab, lub zog tshiab, thiab kev lag luam e-lag luam hla ciam teb tseem txuas ntxiv ua tus thawj coj; kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom nruab nrab thiab cov khoom lag luam peev ntau dua li cov khoom siv rau cov neeg siv khoom.
•Kev Lag Luam Toj roob hauv pes: ASEAN ua ntej, Middle East / Russia / Africa kev loj hlob siab, Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas qhia txog kev rov zoo tas li.
•Cov Ntaub Ntawv Tseem Ceeb: Xyoo 2025, Tuam Tshoj tus nqi xa khoom tag nrho tau txog RMB 26.99 trillion, nce 6.1% txhua xyoo; kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv tsim khoom tau txog RMB 16.03 trillion, nce 9.2%, suav txog 59.4% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm.
•Cov yam ntxwv ntawm kev thauj khoom: Lub peev xwm xa khoom nruj ua ntej hnub so, rov zoo sai tom qab; kev hloov pauv ntawm cov kev Asia-Europe/Mediterranean, lub sijhawm thauj mus rau Southeast Asia/Middle East ruaj khov.
II. Xyoo 2026 Q1 Cov Qeb Tseem Ceeb rau Kev Pib Muaj Zog
1. "Peb Lub Tuam Txhab Tshiab": Lub Cav Tseem Ceeb rau Lub Xyoo, Kev Loj Hlob Siab Hauv Q1
Cov tsheb fais fab (EVs), roj teeb lithium, thiab cov khoom siv photovoltaic (PV) tseem yog cov tsav tsheb loj tshaj plaws rau kev xa khoom tawm. Kev rov ua dua tshiab txawv teb chaws tom qab hnub so, nrog rau kev xav tau txoj cai thiab kev tsim kho vaj tse.
Cov Ntaub Ntawv Tseem Ceeb:
• Tag nrho cov nyiaj xa tawm ntawm "Peb Lub Tebchaws Tshiab" hauv xyoo 2025 yuav los txogRMB 1.3 trillion, ibNce 3.5 npaug hauv 5 xyoos, nce mus27.1%xyoo-rau-xyoo.
•Cov Tsheb Fais Fab Tshiab: Kev xa khoom mus txog2.315 lab unitsnyob rau hauv 11 lub hlis thawj ntawm xyoo 2025,+102.9%txhua xyoo; tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm ib chavUSD 20,000–30,000Tus nqi xa khoom ib hlis rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis+71.7%xyoo-rau-xyoo.
•Cov roj teeb lithium: 2025 tus nqi xa tawmRMB 570.86 billion,+24.4%txhua xyoo; Lub Ib Hlis-Cuaj hlis xa khoom tawmUSD 55.38 billion,+26.8%xyoo-rau-xyoo.
•Cov khoom siv photovoltaic: Kev xa khoom tawm ntau tshaj qhov tau teev tsegRMB 200 billiontau 4 xyoos sib law liag; muaj kev xav tau ntau ntxiv rau cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob txawv teb chaws hauv Q1.
Cov Lag Luam Tseem CeebCov teb chaws: ASEAN, Middle East, Russia, North Africa, South America
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb ntawm Kev Thauj Mus Los:
•NEVs: Ro-Ro cov hlab ntsha / cov khib tiaj tiaj, kev tshaj tawm cov khoom txaus ntshai, daim ntawv tso cai xa tawm, kev tshem tawm kev lis kev cai mus rau qhov chaw
•Cov roj teeb lithiumUN38.3, daim ntawv pov thawj khoom txaus ntshai, ntim khoom tsawg, qhov chaw tshwj xeeb rau kab
•Cov khoom siv photovoltaic: Feem ntau yog thauj khoom puv thawv, xyuam xim rau lub qhov rais hloov kho qauv rau cov nqi rov qab VAT
Kev Kwv Yees Q1: Kev loj hlob txhua xyoo tseem nyob ntawm25%–40%qhov chaw ntim khoom nruj qhia tiasnrhiav chaw ua ntej hnub so.
2. Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob & ICT: AI-Driven, Muaj Zog Semiconductor Rov Qab Los (Kev Loj Hlob Siab Pom Tseeb)
Tsav los ntawm AI servers, data centers, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob rau cov neeg siv khoom,cov khoom siv sib txuas lus, cov khoos phis tawj, cov khoom siv sib txuas lus, thiab cov vaj huam sib luag tso saibtab tom muaj kev rov qab los zoo.
Cov Ntaub Ntawv Tseem Ceeb:
• Lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj xyoo 2025 tus nqi xa tawm ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sib xyaw ua ke+47.7%xyoo dhau xyoo,dhau lub xov tooj ntawm tes ua cov khoom xa tawm loj tshaj plaws.
• Cov nqi loj hlob ntawm cov khoos phis tawj thiab cov khoom siv sib txuas lus wireless hauv ib hlis xwb tau txog lawm89.2%thiab66.9%feem; kev xa tawm xov tooj ntawm tes+41.2%.
• Kev xa khoom siv kho vajtse ntsig txog AI hauv Tebchaws Meskas tau nce ntxiv48.3%–89.2%, tsav kev loj hlob siab hauv Suav teb cov khoom xa tawm ICT.
Cov Lag Luam Tseem Ceeb: Tebchaws Meskas, Tebchaws Europe, Cov Tebchaws Esxias Qab Teb, Nyiv Pooj, Kauslim Teb
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb ntawm Kev Thauj Mus Los: Cov khoom thauj khoom muaj nqis siab nyiam xa khoom los ntawm huab cua / nkoj ceev ceev, tswj qhov kub thiab txias thiab dej noo, taug qab tag nrho, lav tsis muaj kev puas tsuaj.
Kev Kwv Yees Q1Lub caij xa khoom siv hluav taws xob siab tshaj plaws; tus nqi thauj khoom los ntawm huab cua nce siab tsis tu ncua thaum Lub Ob Hlis-Lub Peb Hlis; tus nqi loj hlob30%+.
3. Tshuab thiab Kev Tsim Nkoj: Cov Khoom Uas Muaj Zog, Cov Khoom Xa Tawm Uas Muaj Zog Heev
Cov tshuab dav dav, cov cav, cov khoom siv hauv tsev, thiab kev tsim nkojtau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb rov zoo thiab kev loj hlob siab hauv kev txiav txim backlogs, nrog rau kev xa khoom ntau hauv Q1.
Cov Ntaub Ntawv Tseem Ceeb:
• Xyoo 2025 kev xa tawm cov khoom siv kho tshuab thiab hluav taws xob tau mus txogRMB 12.07 trillion, nce mus9.6%, kev suav nyiaj rau60.5%ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm.
• Cov khoom lag luam peev xws linkoj, generators, twj tso kua mis, compressorspab txhawb 0.4–1 feem pua ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom tawm tag nrho.
Cov Pawg Tseem CeebCov twj tso kua mis, cov tshuab compressors, cov tshuab hluav taws xob, cov tshuab cua txias hauv tsev, cov tshuab ntxhua khaub ncaws, cov tub yees lag luam, cov nkoj thauj khoom / cov nkoj thauj roj
Cov Lag Luam Tseem CeebCov teb chaws: ASEAN, Middle East, Africa, South America, Europe
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb ntawm Kev Thauj Mus Los: Kev txhawb zog rau cov khoom loj, cov khib tiaj tiaj / qhib saum toj, kev tshem tawm kev lis kev cai thiab kev thauj khoom.
Kev Kwv Yees Q1: Kev ntseeg siab siab, ntau daim ntawv cog lus ntev; tus nqi loj hlob8%–12%, tsim nyog rau kev npaj chaw mus sij hawm ntev.
4. Cov Khoom Tseem Ceeb rau Kev Lag Luam Hauv Is Taws Nem: Kev Tshaj Tawm Khoom Tshiab Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav + Kev Siv Nyiaj So, Kev Loj Hlob Loj Hlob ntawm Cov Lus Txiav Txim Me Me, Hloov Pauv Sai
Kev tso tawm cov khoom tshiab rau lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav txawv teb chaws, lub caij rov qab mus kawm ntawv, kev kho dua tshiab hauv tsev, thiab kev ua si sab nraum zoov, ua ke nrog kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam hauv online hauv Southeast Asia, Russia, thiab Middle East —cov khoom me me uas tsis hnyav, cov khoom siv uas txav tau sai, cov khoom siv hauv tsev, thiab cov khoom siv me metxuas ntxiv pom cov xaj khoom tawg heev.
Cov Ntaub Ntawv Tseem Ceeb:
• Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xa khoom mus rau txawv teb chaws hauv online yuav nce mus txogRMB 3.2 trillionxyoo 2026, suav nrog28%ntawm tag nrho cov khoom xa tawm txawv teb chaws.
• Kev lag luam e-commerce hauv Southeast Asia yuav tshaj qhovUSD 150 billionxyoo 2026, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm15%Kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam e-lag luam hauv Indonesia22%, Is Nrias teb17.6%.
• B2B kev lag luam e-lag luam hla ciam teb muaj ze li ntawm70%, nrog kev loj hlob siab dua li B2C; Q1 cargo ntim+30%+hli dhau hli.
Pawg Tseem CeebCov khoom siv hauv tsev txhua hnub, cov khoom khaws cia, cov khoom siv me me, cov khoom siv hauv chav ua noj, kev lom zem sab nraum zoov, cov khoom siv kis las, cov khaub ncaws caij nplooj ntoos hlav, cov khoom siv tsiaj, 3C accessories
Cov Lag Luam Tseem Ceeb: Sab Qab Teb Hnub Tuaj Asia (TikTok Shop), Russia, Middle East, kev lag luam hauv zos
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb ntawm Kev Thauj Mus Los: Kev khaws cia khoom txawv teb chaws rau kev khaws cia, cov pob khoom me me tshwj xeeb, kev pabcuam DDP, lub sijhawm thauj mus los ruaj khov, kev poob qis rov qab.
Kev Kwv Yees Q1: Qhov ntim khoom thauj khoom hauv E-lag luam+30%+hli dhau hli; tus nqi kawg mais nce me ntsis.
5. Cov Khoom Siv Tseem Ceeb Rau Lub Caij Ntuj No & Cov Khoom Siv Uas Hloov Mus Sai: Lub Sijhawm Rov Qab Khoom Hauv Tebchaws Russia / Middle East / Tebchaws Europe
Lub Ib Hlis-Lub Peb Hlis tseem yog lub caij sov hauv Northern Hemisphere. Kev xav tau raucov khoom siv cua sov, cov ntaub sov hauv tsev, cov khaub ncaws tuab, thiab cov khoom siv me metseem muaj zog hauv Russia, Eastern Europe thiab Central Asia.
Cov Ntaub Ntawv Tseem Ceeb:
• Kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom mus rau Russia thiab Central Asia tau tshaj qhov xav tau15%+rau ntau lub hlis sib law liag; kev thov khoom siv cua sov, pam hluav taws xob, thiab cov tsho loj.
• Kev loj hlob ntawm kev xa khoom mus rau ASEAN xyoo 202511.1%, Latin America9.8%, Tebchaws Africa13.7%kev muaj zog ntawm cov khoom siv hauv cov lag luam tshiab.
Cov Pawg Tseem CeebCov cua sov hluav taws xob, cov pam hluav taws xob, cov tsho down jackets, cov pam, cov khoom siv me me uas tus qauv European
Cov Kev Cai Tseem CeebDaim ntawv pov thawj tiav (CE/EAC/GOST), kev hloov kho hluav taws xob, kev ntim khoom raws li txoj cai
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb ntawm Kev Thauj Mus LosTsheb ciav hlau Tuam Tshoj-Russia, cov kab thauj khoom sai sai, lub sijhawm thauj mus los ntawm chaw nres nkoj hauv av ruaj khov.
Kev Kwv Yees Q1: Kev rov ua kom tiav tas li hauv 1 lub hlis tom qab hnub so; cov khoom tsis muaj daim ntawv pov thawj tsim nyog yuav raug tsis lees paub.
6. Cov Khoom Siv Ua Liaj Ua Teb & Cov Khoom Noj Uas Tau Npaj Lawm: Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv, Yooj Yim, Kev Loj Hlob Siab hauv ASEAN / North America
Cov khoom noj ua tiav lawm, cov protein ua los ntawm cov nroj tsuag, cov khoom siv hauv dej, tshuaj yej, thiab cov khoom siv ua liaj ua teb tshwj xeebtau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev noj zaub mov zoo thiab kev thov ntawm cov neeg siv khoom txawv teb chaws Suav. Cov saw hlau txias thiab kev ua raws li txoj cai yog cov qauv tseem ceeb.
Cov Ntaub Ntawv Tseem Ceeb:
• Kev xa tawm cov khoom ua liaj ua teb tseem loj hlob tas li5%–8%; qhov xav tau thawv txias+12%xyoo-rau-xyoo.
• Kev lag luam tsiaj thoob ntiaj teb yuav los txogUSD 500 billionxyoo 2026, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntawm6%–8%kev xa khoom tsiaj tuaj loj hlob tib lub sijhawm.
Cov Pawg Tseem CeebCov khoom ua los ntawm taum pauv, cov khoom siv hauv dej, cov tais diav ua tiav lawm, tshuaj yej, txiv ntoo qhuav, cov khoom qab zib
Cov Lag Luam Tseem CeebCov teb chaws: ASEAN, Tebchaws Meskas, Canada, Australia, Tebchaws Europe
Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb ntawm Kev Thauj Mus Los: Cov thawv ntim khoom txias, kev tswj qhov kub thiab txias, kev tshuaj xyuas khoom muag thiab kev xa ntawv tuaj rau kev lis kev cai, kev ua raws li daim ntawv lo.
Kev Kwv Yees Q1: Kev loj hlob ruaj khov, cov nqi rov qab yuav khoom siab, tsim nyog rau kev xa khoom ruaj khov mus sij hawm ntev.
III. Xyoo 2026 Q1 Cov Lag Luam Tseem Ceeb & Cov Kev Sib Tw
1. ASEAN (Tus Khub Lag Luam Loj Tshaj Plaws)
• Kev kwv yees tus nqi loj hlob ntawm9.4%xyoo 2026.
• Lub sijhawm thauj khoom sai, tus nqi tsim nyog, ntim khoom ruaj khov.
• Cov khoom xa tuaj uas muaj ntau yam sib xyaw ua kekhoom siv hauv tsev, 3C, tshuab, khoom lag luam hauv online.
Cov txiaj ntsig:Kev Thauj Mus Los Hauv Hiav Txwv, Kev Thauj Mus Los Ntau Hom Av.
2. Lavxias teb sab thiab Central Asia
• Kev thov ntau ntxiv raucua sov, khoom siv, khoom siv ceev ceev.
• Kev loj hlob sai15%+.
• Feem ntautsheb ciav hlau, kev thauj khoom los ntawm huab cua, kev thauj mus los hauv av.
• Qhov Tseem Ceeb: Kev Ua Raws Cai thiab Daim Ntawv Pov Thawj.
3. Sab Hnub Tuaj Nruab Nrab
• Muaj kev thov ntau raulub zog tshiab, kev tsim kho vaj tse, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob.
• Kev loj hlob sai10%–15%.
•Kev thauj khoom ncaj qha los ntawm hiav txwv + kev khaws khoom txawv teb chawsrau kev sib tw ntau dua.
4. Tebchaws Europe (Kev Mus Los Ntawm Mediterranean / Asia-Tebchaws Europe)
• Kev xa khoom mus rau Tebchaws Europe nce ntxiv8.1%nyob rau hauv 11 lub hlis thawj zaug ntawm xyoo 2025; kev rov zoo tseem txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo 2026.
• Cov pawg tseem ceeb:Lub zog tshiab, khoom siv hluav taws xob, tshuab.
• Yuav tsum ceev faj txog kev hloov pauv ntawm txoj kev thiab cov nqi ntxiv;qhov chaw sau ntawv thaum ntxov.
5. Tebchaws Africa & Latin America
• Kev loj hlob siab hauvtsheb, tshuab, khoom siv hauv tsev, cov ntaub ntawv siv hauv tsev.
• Kev loj hlob ntawm teb chaws Africa13.7%, Latin America9.8%.
• Feem ntauFCL, kev tshem tawm kev lis kev cai nyuaj.
• Pom zooib qho chaw nres tsheb logistics kev daws teeb meem.
6. Tebchaws Meskas
• Kev rov zoo me ntsis tab sis raws li kev tsim kho raug kev nyuaj siab.
• Kev kwv yees tus nqi loj hlob nyob ib ncig ntawm-5%xyoo 2026.
• Ua tib zoo xav txogcov khoom muaj nqis ntxiv, ua raws li kev cai.
• Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev thauj mus los:Cov nkoj ceev ceev, kev tswj kub, kev taug qab siab.
IV. 2026 Q1 Logistics & Shipping Cov Lus Ceeb Toom Tseem Ceeb (Tseem Ceeb Rau Cov Kws Tshaj Lij Kev Lag Luam Txawv Tebchaws)
1. Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav Lub Caij So
• Cov chaw tsim khoom kaw thaum nruab nrab Lub Ob Hlis, rov qhib dua thaum kawg Lub Ob Hlis.
• Cov kab xa khoom, chaw nres nkoj, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm cov neeg lis kev cai.
•Ib nrab thawj zaug ntawm lub Ob Hlis yog lub qhov rais xa khoom kawg uas muaj kev sib sau ua ke.
2. Qhov Chaw & Tus Nqi
• Ua ntej hnub so: Muaj chaw tsawg rau cov kev mus los ntawm Southeast Asia / Middle East.
• Tom qab hnub so: Rov zoo tag nrho thaum Lub Peb Hlis.
•Xaiv qhov chaw ruaj ntseg rau Peb Lub Tshiab / Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob muaj nqis siab.
3. Cov Kab Liab Ua Raws Cai
•Cov roj teeb Lithium / NEVsKev ntim khoom txaus ntshai, tus lej UN, kev tshaj tawm tas li — zam kev raug kaw hauv thawv thiab raug nplua.
•Cov Khoom Lag Luam E-lag luam: Kev tshuaj xyuas ua ntej cov cim lag luam, kev ua txhaum cai, daim ntawv pov thawj, cov kev cai ntawm kev lis kev cai xa mus rau qhov chaw xa khoom.
4. Txoj Kev Npaj Uas Tsis Sib Haum
•Cov pawg neeg muaj kev hloov pauv ntau: Khaws cov khoom lag luam txawv teb chaws ua ntej hnub so, xa khoom ncaj qha tom qab hnub so.
•Kev thauj khoom loj / Daim ntawv cog lus ntev: Chaw Sau Ntawv10-15 hnub ua ntej, zam kev sib tsoo rau thawj hnub rov qab mus ua haujlwm.
V. Cov Lus Qhia Luv: Xyoo 2026 Kev Pib Muaj Zog - Tsom ntsoov rau 3 Txoj Kab Tseem Ceeb
1. Lub Hom Phiaj Rau Cov Chaw Loj Hlob Siab: Peb Yam Tshiab, Electronics ICT, Machinery & Shipbuilding (Kev Ntseeg Siab Tshaj Plaws)
2. Lub Hom Phiaj Rau Cov Lag Luam Tshiab: ASEAN, Russia, Middle East, Africa (Kev Loj Hlob Sai Tshaj Plaws)
3. Siv Cov Kev Zoo ntawm Logistics: Khaws qhov chaw kom ruaj ntseg ua ntej hnub so, ua kom raws li txoj cai tseem ceeb, xa cov chaw khaws khoom txawv teb chaws, ua kom pom tseeb txhua lub sijhawm.
Xyoo nees twb los txog lawm. Kev xaiv cov khoom zoo = ib nrab ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua yeej lawm. Kev xaiv tus khub logistics zoo = kev taug kev tsis muaj kev txhawj xeeb.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Ob Hlis-28-2026